Other barriers, such as shortages of installers, appear to be more pressing priorities for boosting heat pump deployment.

Expansion to 2030 is therefore likely to be much greater than has currently been announced. Heat pumps share components with other industries and appliances, and their demand for critical materials – with its associated supply vulnerabilities - is lower than that of other clean energy technologies such as electrolysers, solar PV and wind. However, manufacturing facilities can be deployed relatively quickly (one to three years) and few expansion projects are ever widely announced. Global manufacturing capacity would need to almost quadruple by 2030 in order to bridge that gap. This would still leave a gap to meet the sales required in the Net Zero by 2050 Scenario. In 2022, some of the major manufacturers, notably in Europe, announced expansion plans that – if realised in full – would increase global manufacturing capacity by around one third. Greater deployment of heat pumps in the years ahead will require a scale-up of manufacturing capacity and has implications for the entire heat pump supply chain and electricity infrastructure. Read the report: The Future of Heat Pumps circle-arrow The IEA estimates heat pumps globally have the potential to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions by at least 500 million tonnes in 2030 – equal to the annual CO 2 emissions of all cars in Europe today. Financial incentives for heat pumps are already available in over 30 countries, which together cover more than 70% of heating demand today. Government policy support is needed, though, to help consumers overcome heat pumps’ higher upfront costs relative to alternatives.

It also highlights the major barriers and policy solutions, and explores the implications of an accelerated uptake of heat pumps for energy security, consumers’ energy bills, employment and efforts to tackle climate change.Īround 10% of space heating needs globally were met by heat pumps in 2021, but the pace of installation is growing rapidly with sales at record levels. The Future of Heat Pumps, a special report in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook series, provides an outlook for heat pumps, identifying key opportunities to accelerate their deployment.

Heat pumps, powered by low-emissions electricity, are the central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating.

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